RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

Fri Nov 21 8:42am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

The Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins and Commanders will all be on a bye during Week 12. We have the potential for some lopsided scores among the teams that will be in action, which could create a bit of a tricky DFS slate. With that in mind, here are some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye, NE at CIN ($6,900): The Bengals are a good team to attack in DFS because they have given up 33.4 points per game. A big reason for their struggles has been them allowing the second-most passing yards per game and the most passing touchdowns in the league. They also have just 14 sacks, which is the second-fewest in the NFL. Maye, who has worked his way into the MVP discussion, has the potential to produce a gaudy stat line this week.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI vs. JAX ($5,300): Brissett threw for 452 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against the 49ers in Week 11. He has recorded at least 258 passing yards and two touchdowns in all five of his starts. The Cardinals haven’t been conservative with him, leaving Brissett to attempt at least 44 passes in a game three times. At his cheap salary, he’s an appealing option against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Player to Avoid

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. PHI ($6,400): Prescott racked up four touchdowns against the Raiders last week, marking his fifth game of the season with at least three touchdowns. As good as he has been, the Eagles are a difficult matchup. They have allowed just nine passing touchdowns this season and have held opposing quarterbacks to a 56.6% completion rate. When Prescott faced them in Week 1, he finished with 188 passing yards and no touchdowns.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. NYG ($8,300): The Eagles limited Gibbs to 39 yards on 12 carries last week. However, he torched them in the passing game, catching five of eight targets for 107 yards. The Giants have given up 5.74 yards per carry to running backs, which is a recipe for disaster when facing the explosive Gibbs. Gibbs should be a popular DFS option this week, and rightfully so.

Zach Charbonnet, SEA at TEN ($4,900): Despite not being the lead back for the Seahawks, Charbonnet has finished with at least 11 carries in seven of his nine games. He has also been given 28 red zone carries, 10 of which have come inside the five-yard line. That’s an important stat to consider for this matchup against the Titans, who have given up 15 rushing touchdowns. Charbonnet has the potential to provide significant value.

Player to Avoid

Chase Brown, CIN vs. NE ($6,200): The Patriots have allowed just 84.7 rushing yards per game, which is the lowest mark in the league. The have only given up two carries of at least 20 yards, while holding opponents to four total rushing touchdowns. This is a disaster of a matchup for Brown, who has rushed for fewer than 50 yards in seven of 10 games.

Wide Receivers

Kayshon Boutte, NE at CIN ($5,000): Boutte has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but is set to make his return after practicing this week. Although he doesn’t have a ton of receptions this season, he comes with big play upside, given his average depth of target of 16.7 yards. With how porous the Bengals’ secondary has been, Boutte is a viable budget-friendly option to stack with Maye.

Michael Wilson, ARI vs. JAX ($5,000): Marvins Harrison Jr. (appendix) being out last week left Wilson to be the top wide receiver for the Cardinals. He didn’t disappoint, catching 15 of 18 targets for 185 yards. Harrison is out again this week, so Wilson is yet another wide receiver who could provide significant value.

Player to Avoid

Justin Jefferson, MIN at GB ($7,400): J.J. McCarthy has struggled for the Vikings, throwing for fewer than 160 yards in four of his five games. Across three games since McCarthy returned from injury, Jefferson has a total of 15 receptions for 145 yards and one touchdown. Until McCarthy shows signs of turning things around, Jefferson is too risky at his hefty salary.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride, ARI vs. JAX ($6,800): McBride also performed well with Harrison out last week, catching 10 of 11 targets for 115 yards and one touchdown. He has caught at least one touchdown in all five games since Brissett took over at quarterback. In total, he has 43 receptions for 443 yards and six scores over the last five games. While he comes with a hefty salary, he could be well worth it.

Hunter Henry, NE at CIN ($3,900): Target tight ends against the Bengals. They have allowed the most receiving yards (808) and touchdowns (12) to the position in the league. Enter Henry, who has been targeted 16 times over the last three games. He also has four touchdowns already, doubling his total from last season.

Player to Avoid

Luke Musgrave, GB vs. MIN ($3,200): Tucker Kraft (knee) going down leaves a massive void at tight end for the Packers. It wasn’t filled by Musgrave last week, given that he logged just 19 offensive snaps. Meanwhile, fellow tight end John FitzPatrick played 34 offensive snaps. The duo combined for just two receptions for four yards. While the Packers relied heavily on Kraft before his injury, it doesn’t look like they plan to heavily feature any one tight end in the passing game moving forward.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

The Paur Report