Running back Strength of Schedule

Wed May 20 11:08am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a strength-of-schedule ranking for the running back position. We used our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the “Reports” heading. We took each team’s schedule and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season by all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season.

RANK	TEAM	AVG. OPP FANTASY PPG ALLOWED
1.	Panthers	21.14
2.	Steelers	21.37
3.	Raiders	21.37
4.	Ravens	21.54
5.	Buccaneers	21.71
6.	Jaguars	21.74
7.	Bengals	21.78
8.	Bears	21.79
9.	Chiefs	21.8
10.	Bills	21.83
11.	Jets	21.85
12.	Dolphins	21.86
13.	Colts	21.96
14.	Chargers	22
15.	Broncos	22
16.	Falcons	22.03
17.	Texans	22.04
18.	Cardinals	22.05
19.	Packers	22.05
20.	Patriots	22.09
21.	Titans	22.18
22.	Browns	22.25
23.	49ers	22.38
24.	Vikings	22.53
25.	Giants	22.57
26.	Saints	22.63
27.	Commanders	22.71
28.	Cowboys	22.72
29.	Seahawks	22.83
30.	Rams	22.89
31.	Lions	22.91
32.	Eagles	23.09

Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing which running backs might have the easiest schedules for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

Some of the best running backs in football have favorable fantasy schedules for the coming season. The Eagles and Saquon Barkley have the easiest running back schedule, so maybe a rebound season is in the works for Barkley, who really disappointed last year. Barkley could be set up for good things with an easy schedule and a new offensive coordinator calling plays.

Jahmyr Gibbs is the top pick for a lot of fantasy players and could move up even further for those who aren’t already selecting him first because of Detroit’s favorable running back schedule. The Lions have the second-easiest schedule for running backs. Their running game could be really scary this year.

The Rams, Seahawks, and Cowboys round out the top five most favorable schedules for running backs. Kyren Williams has been really dependable in recent seasons, so more of the same could be expected from him. The Seahawks are without Kenneth Walker this year, but the running game could remain potent because of their great scheme. Rookie Jadarian Price is going to start while Zach Charbonnet returns from his torn ACL. These backs could produce some big games this season.

Lastly, Javonte Williams had a breakout season, his first with the Cowboys. That led to a big offseason contract to remain the starter in Dallas. Williams should produce well once again in this offense with a favorable schedule for the upcoming season. It wouldn’t be surprising if he tops his numbers from last year.

The team with the toughest fantasy schedule for running backs is also a team that already has some concerns at the position. The Panthers lost Rico Dowdle this offseason and are likely to go with Chuba Hubbard as their starter this coming season. Jonathan Brooks could also be in the mix, but he is returning from a major knee injury, so there are concerns about whether he can return to his previous form. Either way, the Panthers’ running back room might be one to steer clear of.

Pittsburgh is another team that could go with a tandem at running back, having Jaylen Warren and Dowdle split the workload. The Steelers also face the second-most difficult schedule for running backs. The split backfield combined with the tough schedule is concerning for the coming year.

The Raiders, Ravens, and Bucs round out the top five most difficult running back schedules. Ashton Jeanty was a little disappointing during his rookie year, but his fantasy numbers weren’t terrible by any means. He faces another tough schedule this year, so maybe that huge second season isn’t in the cards. The workload should still be there for him, though, so don’t completely discount him because of a challenging schedule. Maybe just temper expectations a bit.

Derrick Henry just keeps chugging along. He had a tough schedule last year as well, but that didn’t slow him down. You have to worry somewhat about his age and workload, but neither has slowed him much to this point. Maybe move him down a few spots in your rankings because of this schedule, but it’s hard to count him out.

The Bucs have the fifth-toughest schedule for running backs. Bucky Irving is the starter and has done well in recent seasons in that role, but he hasn’t been off the charts. It could be a similar season for him this coming year. A sudden huge jump in production is unlikely because of this schedule, along with the Bucs’ tendency to rotate backs in this offense.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers for all schedules from Weeks 15-17, which is the fantasy playoff period for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing which running backs have the easiest playoff schedules certainly doesn’t hurt, especially in the big-money contests.

RANK	TEAM	AVG. OPP FANTASY PPG ALLOWED
1.	Panthers	19.34
2.	Commanders	20.13
3.	49ers	20.42
4.	Chiefs	20.56
5.	Ravens	20.77
6.	Eagles	20.95
7.	Titans	21.09
8.	Buccaneers	21.12
9.	Texans	21.35
10.	Bills	21.43
11.	Patriots	21.49
12.	Dolphins	21.84
13.	Cowboys	21.85
14.	Colts	21.87
15.	Bears	22.06
16.	Raiders	22.1
17.	Jets	21.15
18.	Packers	22.42
19.	Broncos	22.45
20.	Giants	22.49
21.	Bengals	22.57
22.	Lions	22.58
23.	Rams	22.59
24.	Seahawks	22.64
25.	Chargers	22.73
26.	Steelers	23.07
27.	Falcons	23.09
28.	Browns	23.17
29.	Jaguars	23.87
30.	Saints	23.92
31.	Cardinals	24.19
32.	Vikings	24.36

There is not a single team with both a top-five favorable fantasy running back schedule for the regular season and the playoffs. The Vikings come in with the most favorable playoff schedule for running backs. Minnesota is likely to use a tandem of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones in a split backfield. Mason is the more intriguing back of the two, so maybe take a chance on him on draft day with hopes that he emerges and produces big numbers down the stretch.

The Cardinals also have a very easy playoff schedule, giving fantasy owners hope that rookie Jeremiyah Love becomes a difference-maker in Year 1. Love is immensely talented and should get most of the three-down work in this offense. He is already an intriguing fantasy option, so this schedule gives even more reason for optimism during his rookie season.

The Saints, Jaguars, and Browns round out the top five most favorable running back playoff schedules. Travis Etienne takes over as the starter in New Orleans and could be set up for a big first season with his new team. He might be worth grabbing early as a No. 2 fantasy back because of his chances to go off during the fantasy playoffs.

Many consider Etienne’s replacement, Bhayshul Tuten, to be a possible breakout candidate in a starting role. His stock could rise even more because of a really favorable playoff schedule. Things are looking up for the second-year back as he gets a chance to start in this explosive offense.

The Browns are a scary team to target on draft day, but Quinshon Judkins is a little intriguing. He could be one of the few bright spots on the offense, and now you can see he also has a favorable playoff schedule. He might be one of the few Browns worth targeting in fantasy drafts.

Carolina tops the list for both the regular season and fantasy playoffs with the most difficult running back schedule. That is not good news if you are considering drafting Hubbard or Brooks. These guys could struggle throughout the season.

The Ravens are the only other team to make both difficult-schedule lists. Again, it is tough to bet against Henry, but he is another year older, and difficult schedules during both the regular season and playoffs are at least a little concerning. Just keep that in mind on draft day.

The Commanders, 49ers, and Chiefs also make the top five for most difficult playoff schedules for running backs. Washington’s running back situation is still somewhat up in the air, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt likely serving as the No. 1 back. He is no sure thing to begin with, so a difficult playoff schedule could make fantasy owners shy away from him depending on where he is being drafted.

Christian McCaffrey is not a huge concern despite making this list. He is somewhat matchup-proof because of his ability to make big plays in the passing game. His biggest concern is staying on the field after a huge workload last season combined with his past injury issues.

The Chiefs have not run the ball particularly well in recent seasons, but they hope the addition of Kenneth Walker makes a huge difference in that department. He is a major upgrade for the team. It does hurt a little to see Walker facing a tough playoff schedule, though. He could disappoint somewhat late in the year, but look for him to have a big first season with his new team.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Running back Strength of Schedule

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