Lineup Prep: Week 16

Wed Dec 18 8:55am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Mayfield can have big Week 16

Last week was quite the show in fantasy land. I can’t remember a week with so many monster fantasy performances. It made for some exciting, high-scoring fantasy games. Here is to hoping for a repeat in Week 16.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

Just when you think Will Levis might be turning the corner, he goes back to his old ways. He looked game his first game or two back from his benching/injury, but has regressed once again to his old ways. I really think the Titans will be looking for a new quarterback next year. I don’t think Levis is the answer. He is just too erratic right now. A new team and fresh start might do him some good. He definitely has some big-time talent.

I don’t know what the heck happened to Kirk Cousins but he looks a shell of his former self. I just wonder if the offense isn’t a good fit for him. He just hasn’t been on time like he has in recent seasons with the Vikings. Cousins is just forcing passes too much right now. He has been a disaster of a signing for the Falcons, who are now turning to rookie Michael Penix for the rest of the season. Penix will be interesting to watch the rest of the way. He has some real fantasy potential.

The NFC is going to be really interesting to watch these playoffs. It looks like the Lions were going to roll through the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl, but injuries have really opened the door in my view for another team to unseat them. And there are several teams in the NFC playing good football right now, including the Vikings, Packers and Eagles. I think the representative in the NFC is wide open with several legit contenders to make a run. It should a fun one to watch this playoffs.

There are some quarterbacks really at the top of their game right now. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow look lights out. These guys have all been big-time fantasy factors this year and show that getting an elite quarterback can be a winning strategy despite having to use a higher draft pick on them. Consistency breeds success in fantasy and figuring out platoon options every week at quarterback can be tough. Having a guy like Allen to just plug in and play is a great luxury to have.

It really feels like Garrett Wilson has been a disappointment this season but you look at the scoring and he is seventh overall at receiver. Sure, the Jets have been a disappointment as a team but you can’t be too sour on Wilson. He is still producing pretty consistent numbers and had a few really big games. If this offense can turn the corner just a tad more, the sky is the limit for the ultra-talented Wilson.

Everyone thought Mark Andrews was done and washed after his horrible start to the season. Remember, he had six catches for 65 yards on nine targets his first four games. Well, those games are a distant past with Andrews looking like the elite tight end of old his last several games. He has 14-plus fantasy points six of nine games and is now sixth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. It just goes to show that sometimes if you ride out the bad, the good can override that before the season is over. He could end up helping a lot of fantasy teams win championships.

It just takes one bad week to lose a fantasy championship, so you hate to see what happened to Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry last week. These guys have carried teams all season to a lot of wins, but had some of their worst games of the season in Week 15. These showings likely knocked a lot of owners out. Why does it happen to at this time of the year? The fantasy gods aren’t always nice, right? It also shows you that not always the best teams in the regular season win it all. You just need to get hot at the right time.

News and Notes: The Chiefs released running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on Monday. Edwards-Helaire didn't play a single down for the Chiefs in 2024. . . . .The Browns are making a change at quarterback, going with Dorian Thompson-Robinson for their Week 16 game. Jameis Winston heads to the bench because of his turnover issues in recent starts. . . . .The Colts signed tight end Albert Okwuegbunam on Tuesday. He gives the Colts another pass-catching option at tight end.

HOT PLAYS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield remains red hot, throwing four touchdown passes last week. He has three-plus touchdowns two straight games. He also has 22-plus fantasy points three of four games. Mayfield is fifth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring, proving last year wasn’t a fluke but more of the norm for him going forward. Look for another big game in Week 15, playing the Cowboys. Dallas allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 21st overall against the pass.

James Conner, RB, Cardinals. Conner had his fifth 100-yard game of the season last week and has 120-plus total yards two straight games. He has 22-plus fantasy points in each of his last two games. Conner has three games this season with 20-plus fantasy points. Conner is enjoying another very successful season, serving as a solid No. 1 back for fantasy teams. He has a great floor right now and should keep up his good ways this week against the Panthers. The Panthers have allowed more than 200-rushing yards three straight games. Carolina allows the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. The Giants are a train wreck offensively, but Nabers continues to produce despite that. He had 10 receptions last week, reaching double-digit catches for the third time this season. He has been targeted double-digit times three straight games and failed to hit double-digit fantasy points just one game. It will be fun to see what Nabers does once he gets a competent quarterback throwing him passes. But even with that said, he is a must start this week against the Falcons. Atlanta allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 24th overall against the pass.

D.J. Moore, WR, Bears. The Bears continue to have problems offensively, but Moore keeps producing. He failed to hit 50-receiving yards last week but had eight catches and ran for 24 yards. Moore still managed to score a solid 15 points for fantasy points. He has at least seven receptions four of five games, giving him a great floor right now. He gets the Lions this week in a game the Bears could be playing from behind, leading to a lot more throws for them. Moore should do well against a very banged up Lions secondary that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Dolphins. Smith is making a run at top fantasy tight end this season. He is producing huge lately, leading all tight ends in scoring his last three games. He has touchdowns two straight and four of five games. He isn’t just scoring, though, having nine or more receptions three of four games. He has been targeted double-digit times three of four. Smith is a must start no matter the matchup, including this week against the 49ers. He should continue to get his looks and produce big.

COLD PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix had another three-touchdown game last week but was intercepted three times and threw for just 130 yards. He scored just 17.8 fantasy points despite all the scores. Nix has cooled a little, having fewer than 19 points two straight and three of five games. He is a little hard to trust at this time of year, especially this week on the road against the Chargers. Los Angeles has been bad against the pass the last few games but been solid much of the year. The Chargers still allow the 14th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 10th overall against the pass.

Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders. Robinson tied a season high with carries last week, rushing 21 times. He managed just 65 yards, though, and was held out of the end zone. He has more than 70-rushing yards just one game since Week 7. Robinson was much more consistent earlier this season. He gets another tough matchup this week against the Eagles, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. Robinson ran 16 times for 63 yards against the Eagles in Week 11.

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. Jennings is having his best season as a pro, getting to start much of the year with Brandon Aiyuk out. But his numbers have tailed off the last few games, having fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four. He had just two receptions for 31 yards on nine targets last week. The 49ers offense just isn't the same this year. Jennings could struggle to hit double-digit points once again this week against the Dolphins. Miami has some of the top cover corners in the game and allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is having his usual solid season this year but his down production the last few games comes at a bad time for his fantasy owners. He has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points two straight games and three of his last five. And now he likely is without Patrick Mahomes this week against a good Texans defense. It could be another down showing for Kelce, getting a team that allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris had a game to forget last week, rushing six times for just 14 yards. He had a season-low 3.1 fantasy points. He has been a little erratic much of the season, though, having fewer than eight points two of four games. He has five games total with fewer than double-digit fantasy points. It could be tough sledding again for him this week against a good Ravens rush defense. He ran 18 times for just 63 yards against the Ravens in Week 11. Baltimore allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.

SLEEPERS

Cooper Rush, QB, Cowboys. If you are looking for a quarterback to stream this week, Rush is our guy. He has started to come alive as the starter for the Cowboys. He has multiple touchdowns two straight and three of four games. He had his first three-touchdown game of the season last week and gets a bad Bucs secondary in Week 15. Rush could get a lot of chances to air it out once again. Tampa is 30th overall against the pass and allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders. Sincere McCormick went down with an injury last week and it was Abdullah that played the most snaps of any Raiders back, playing 46 percent of the time. He played well with his chances, making a lot of plays in the passing game. He had seven receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. He topped double-digit fancy points for the fourth time this year. We like him to hit that mark again this week against a bad Jaguars defense. The Jags allow the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Calvin Austin, WR, Steelers. Austin had five receptions for 65 yards last week, giving him double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He has started to play a bigger role in the Steelers offense, especially with George Pickens out of the lineup. Austin tied for the most snaps played at receiver last week, playing 81 percent of the time. The Steelers are going to have to put up some points this week if they hope to keep you with the Ravens high-powered offense. Austin should get some chances to make big plays against a Ravens defense that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson is getting more looks with Taysom Hill out of the lineup. He has been targeted 15 times his last three games. He has 8.5-plus fantasy points three of four games. And with an inexperienced quarterback starting this week for the Saints, look for Johnson to get his looks as a safety valve. Plus, he gets a Packers team this week that has allowed some big fantasy games to tight ends, allowing the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons. Mooney didn’t catch a single pass last week, getting targeted just one time. That can’t happen to a receiver that has been very good for the Falcons all season. He had 142 yards the previous game. He is the top big-play threat for the Falcons and should get some targets from the get go this week against the Giants. New York is trending the wrong way and allowed some big plays in the passing game this season. Look for Mooney to have one of his big games. The Giants have allowed 275-plus passing yards two of four games.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Eagles/Commanders, 49ers/Dolphins, Vikings/Seahawks, Bucs/Cowboys.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Chargers, Giants/Falcons, Titans/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 16

The Paur Report